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Wednesday Morning, July 23rd
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Ice Man Stocks
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Breakouts:
SNHY - 42 b
CRL - 66 best buy
Depressed:
AGN - 9
GG - 41.70
TAAS - 30.70 g
SWKS - 7.50 g
MRK - 29.30 best buy
HMY - 10.80 g
SKS - 111 g
Trades:
CHL - 70 b
INFY -
TMO - 60 b
DRIV- 40 b
CCOO - 12 b
GOL - 9.80 b
CAI - 45 b
GNK -67 b best buy
Shorts:
BIIB - 73.74
RCL - 28.40
MER - 36.50
IAI - 36.10 g
CCL - 42
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Ice Cold Commentators
Swing Man Market Recap:
Thursday, July 22nd, Market Summary
CNBC Fast Money Review
1. BANKS TAKE-OFF IN FINAL HOUR
WB popped Tuesday despite the fact it reported a surprisingly large second-quarter loss. The nation's fourth-largest bank by assets said it lost $8.86 billion; it also intends to slash its dividend and eliminate 10,750 positions.
In fact the entire banking sector moved higher after KEY posted a smaller-than-expected loss and FITB impressed the Street by saying expect for one time charges they would have earned 7 cents per share.
We haven’t seen the XLF take a breather at all, says Karen Finerman. This move looks like it’s too much too fast. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 5% pull back. Also I think political winds could change with Fannie and Freddie so I think you could see some meaningful trouble ahead. . In the last few minutes of the day I shorted BBT.
It seems to me that volume is important to watch in the banks. It’s substantial, says Joe Terranova. Too many investors are in it. I think you have to be careful. And the trend in the XLF chart looks bearish to me. Downtrends end with a consolidation period not an uptrend.
I think we’re more than half-way through the write-downs, says Pete Najarian. However, I’m not sure how banks will make profits going forward.
2. AFTER HOURS ACTION: WASHINGTON MUTUAL
WM reported a larger-than-expected loss and a steep decline in revenue, but the bank's stock rallied in after-hours trading on its comment that it has sufficient capital to "manage through this challenging period."
This is a stock that’s made a pretty big move, explains Pete Najarian.
I’m unclear if they want to get infront of their bad credit, says Karen Finerman. If they do this stock might be worth a look.
3. AFTER HOURS ACTION: E*TRADE
ETFC dropped about 13% after hours when the brokerage firm said Tuesday it swung to a loss during the second quarter due to a sharp increase in loan-loss provisions.
Provisions for losses were primarily tied to increasing charge-offs in E-Trade's home equity portfolio. Charge-offs are loans that are written off as not being repaid.
I think this company could start to extend gains in the future, says Pete Najarian. Take a look.
4. OIL DROPS $3
Oil Prices fell to a six-week low on Tuesday amid concerns over sliding U.S. energy demand and expectations that a tropical storm pushing through the Gulf of Mexico would spare most offshore oil production.
The losses extend a decline from the July 11 peak above $147 a barrel that has marked the steepest price fall in dollar terms in oil's history — leading some analysts to question how soon the market will resume its six-year rally.
All of the commodity names got hit by the slide in oil, says Pete Najarian. When that happened commodity investors went into banks. It’s a rotation out of commodities into financials.
I can’t stress enough that you need to be careful, adds Joe Terranova. I don’t think the energy run is over. I don’t agree that oil rolled over I think expirations contracts move the price, nothing more.
5. APPLE COMEBACK
AAPL and TXN dragged down the Nasdaq as much as 1% intra-day, after their disappointing outlooks fanned fears about a weaker economy going forward. However by the end of trading Apple recovered much of its losses.
In their earnings report Apple revealed impressive sales numbers. iPod unit sales jumped 12 percent, a strong showing despite last year's launch of the iPhone, which melds iPod features with those of a smart phone. Some analysts had wondered whether iPod sales would lag as consumers opted for fancier, but pricier, iPhones.
The company shipped 717,000 iPhones in the quarter and reiterated its goal to sell 10 million by the end of the fiscal year, including the cheaper, faster iPhone 3G that reached stores in 22 countries in early July.
As you probably know by now the new iPhones sell at a much lower price point.
The margins are coming down, admits Pete Najarian, but the cascading effect of the iPhone should provide big tailwinds for the Mac.
“They’re blowing out their numbers. I think if they lower the price of their products demand will go up,” says Gene Munster. I think the stock is going to go up.”
Bouldersah, exclaims Jeff Macke. I'd take the other side of that trade!
6. POPS AND DROPS
UPS popped 4%. I think oil helped, says Karen Finerman.
DPZ popped 22%. Not bad, says Jeff Macke.
CME popped 12%. It might be worth playing from the longside, says Joe Terranova.
RCL popped 18%. I’m not a buyer, says Joe Terranova.
BBI popped 7%. I’d sell the pop, says Jeff Macke.
LM popped 14%. I’d be a buyer around $31, says Joe Terranova.
AMLN popped 8%. They don’t make a lot of money but they didn’t lose so much either, says an indecisive Pete Najarian.
SNDK dropped 24%. It’s a tough time to be tech company, says Jeff Macke.
BSX dropped 11%. They’re starting to have problems, says Pete Najarian.
7. YOUR FIRST MOVE FOR WEDNESDAY
Jeff Macke thinks T is a sell.
Joe Terranova recommends getting long Gold futures.
Pete Najarian prefers long WMT.
Karen Finerman thinks the XLF is worth a quick short
News and Events Digest
This morning we had four different DJIA compomnents report earnings and so far all shares of these are indicated higher. AT&T (NYSE: T) posted $0.76 non-GAAP EPS vs. $0.76 estimates and generated $8.5 Billion cash from operations and $3.2 Billion in free cash flows. The uVerse broadband TV added 170,000 subscribers to 549,000 with target on track for 1 million subscribers by year-end. Shares are indicated up 1% and could be up more considering the sell-off it has seen. Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) posted $1.16 EPS vs. $1.23 estimate; reaffirmed 2008 at $5.70 to $5.85 EPS ($5.86 est.) and put... This morning we had four different DJIA components report earnings and so far all shares of these are indicated higher. AT&T (NYSE: T) posted $0.76 non-GAAP EPS vs. $0.76 estimates and generated $8.5 Billion cash from operations and $3.2 Billion in free cash flows. The uVerse broadband TV added 170,000 subscribers to 549,000 with target on track for 1 million subscribers by year-end. Shares are indicated up 1% and could be up more considering the sell-off it has seen. Boeing (NYSE: BA) posted $1.16 EPS vs. $1.23 estimate; reaffirmed 2008 at $5.70 to $5.85 EPS ($5.86 est.) and put 2009... If the result from McDonald's (MCD) say anything it is that the low end of the consumer market in the US has not died off. For the second quarter, MCD revenue moved up 4% to $6.1 billion.Earnings per share from continuing operations of $1.04, up 44%. Shares rallied on the news. AKS, BHI, IPI, NAT, PSYS, SGLP, SNN, SYNA, ULTA These are some of the top upgrades or positive analyst calls we are seeing this Wednesday morning in early pre-market hours: AK Steel (AKS) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan. Baker Hughes (BHI) raised to Buy at UBS. Intrepid Potash (IPI) Started as Outperform at BMO Capital. Nordic American Tanker (NAT) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan. Psychiatric Solutions (PSYS) Started as Buy at Stanford Group. Semgroup Energy (SGLP) Raised to Market Perform at Wachovia. Smith & Nephew (SNN) Raised to Buy at Piper Jaffray. Synaptics (SYNA) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer. Ulta... These are some of the top downgrades or negative analyst calls we are seeing this Wednesday morning in early pre-market hours: ADC Telecom (ADCT) Cut to Neutral at Baird; Cut to Market Perform at FBR. Autoliv (ALV) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank. Caterpillar (CAT) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan. FormFactor (FORM) Cut to Perform at Oppenheimer. General Maritime (GMR) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan. G-III Apparel Group (GIII) Cut to Market Weight at Thomas Weisel. Mirant (MIR) Cut to Equal Weight at Lehman. Sonic Solutions (SNIC) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan. Target Corp. (TGT) Cut to Neutral at Credit... A lot of people waited for months to get a new Apple (AAPL) 3G iPhone. Some even passed up the first version, which ran on AT&T’s (T) slower 2.5G network. A number of customers wanted to match the huge number of iPhone features with the ultra-fast AT&T wireless broadband network. 24/7 Wall St. learned by calling local AT&T Wireless stores and reviewing local AT&T 3G coverage maps across the country that there are a number of important places that the new iPhone can’t access the broadband network. There has been a lot of speculation that speculators have been causing high oil prices. Perhaps demand in India and China do not do much to the rising cost of crude. Flat supplies from OPEC and political trouble in places like Nigeria were not an important trigger which helped shoot the cost of a barrel close to $150. Wall St. cheered what seemed to be withering results from Washington Mutual (WM) and Wachovia (WB). WaMu lost $3.3 billion and reserved $3.7 billion to handle loan losses. Wachovia lost $9 billion and its shares moved up over 20%. The euphoria apparently came from the fact that things were not worse. Bank analysts seemed especially optimistic. "We think Wachovia's poor second quarter 2008 should mark a bottom," Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Mayo wrote in a research report after the report, according to MarketWatch. VMWare (VMW) was the hot IPO of 2007. Its shares rose from $50 to $125 almost overnight. The run-up improved the fortunes of the stockholders of its majority shareholder EMC (EMC) and enriched those who got into the stock early. But, if they did not get out fairly quickly, they got murdered. Toyota (TM) made a cut in its forecast for car sales during its fiscal year. It was an extremely modest cut, given the troubles in the global car market, especially the US. According to MarketWatch, "The automaker forecast sales for the full year in the lower 9.5 million unit range, down from the previously targeted goal of 9.85 million cars and trucks." According to Reutere, Yahoo! (YHOO) profits were down, but the company maintained its full-year forecast. Reuters reports that Wachovia (WB) posted huge write-offs and losses for the last quarter. Reuters writes that some members of the FCC have voted on the Sirius (SIRI) merger with XM (XMSR), but no final decision has been made. Markets in Asia were mostly higher. The Nikkei rose 1% to 13,313. NEC was up 2.8% to 585. NTT (NTT) was down 3.1% to 497000. Toyota (TM) was down .9% to 4870. The Hang Seng rose 2.1% to 23,000. China Life (LFC) rose 3.1% to 30.20. China Petroleum (SNP) rose 6.6% to 8.25. The Shanghai Composite fell .3% to 2,838. Data from Reuters Douglas A. McIntyre
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